Forecasts for 2021

It would be an understatement to say that 2020 was a challenging year. The COVID-19 pandemic wrought havoc on the world’s economies. Various economic forecasts agree that 2021 will bring relief, but not for all.
Read on to see what the economics pundits predict for the world, Africa and South Africa in 2021. Then, if your mood needs a lift, read the section “Wishful Thinking”.
The World

The big financial institutions of the world have their fingers on the economic pulse, so let’s see what they have to say.
The World Bank: “The global economy is expected to expand 4% in 2021, assuming an initial COVID-19 vaccine rollout becomes widespread throughout the year.
A downside scenario in which infections continue to rise and the rollout of a vaccine is delayed could limit the global expansion to 1.6% in 2021.
Meanwhile, in an upside scenario with successful pandemic control and a faster vaccination process, global growth could accelerate to nearly 5%.” You can read more in their January 5 Press Release.
The International Monetary Fund: “Amid exceptional uncertainty, the global economy is projected to grow 5.5% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022. The 2021 forecast is revised up 0.3 percentage point relative to the previous forecast.
Many countries, particularly low-income developing economies, entered the crisis with high debt that is set to rise further during the pandemic.” There is more in their World Economic Outlook Update for 2021.
PWC: “In our main scenario we expect the global economy to expand by around 5% in market exchange rates, which is the fastest rate recorded in the 21st century. […] However, this picture masks an uneven pattern.
At one end of the spectrum is the Chinese economy which is already bigger compared to its pre-pandemic size.
On the other end are mostly advanced economies which are either service-based (UK, France, Spain) or more focused on exporting capital goods (Germany, Japan) and are unlikely to recover to their pre-crisis levels by the end of the year. In these economies, growing but lower levels of output is projected to … push up unemployment rates.”. This is from their Predictions for 2021.
IHS Markit: “the reopening of economies and the availability of vaccines will gradually unleash a new wave of spending on travel and services. After a 4.2% decline in 2020, global world GDP is projected to increase about 4.6% in 2021.
[W]e expect a pronounced vaccine-driven pick-up in Eurozone growth rates from mid-year. After an estimated 7.5% contraction in 2020, Eurozone real GDP is projected to rise by about 3.5% in 2021, with the return to pre-pandemic levels not expected until late 2022.”. There is more here: Top 10 Economic Predictions for 2021.
Africa and South Africa

The World Bank: “Sub-Saharan Africa has been hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, with [economic] activity in the region shrinking by an estimated 3.7% last year. Growth is forecast to resume at a moderate average pace of 3% in 2021-22.
COVID-19 is likely to weigh on growth in Sub-Saharan Africa for a long period […]. As a result, living standards are likely to be set back a decade and tens of millions of people in the region could be pushed into extreme poverty cumulatively in 2020-21.
In South Africa, where economic activity was on weak footing before COVID-19, output is estimated to have fallen 7.8% last year […] growth is expected to rebound to 3.3% in 2021.” Read more in their report on Sub-Saharan Africa.
International Monetary Fund: In their World Economic Outlook Update the IMF says that GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa will grow by 3.2% in 2021, and GDP in South Africa will grow by 2.8%.
Industrial Development Corporation: Their Macroeconomic Forecasts of October 2020 predicts a South African GDP growth of 3.3%, a budget deficit of 9.9% of GDP, government debt of 80.1% of GDP, CPI inflation of 4.7%, and PPI inflation of 4.4%.
Wishful Thinking

Economic forecasts can leave one feeling gloomy, so here are some failed predictions that will make you smile.
Apes as chauffeurs
BestLife has collected some wild and whacky predictions, such as this one: “In 1994, the RAND Corporation, a global think tank […] said that ‘During the 21st century, those houses that don’t have a robot in the broom closet could have a live-in ape to do the cleaning and gardening chores. Also, the use of well-trained apes as family chauffeurs might decrease the number of automobile accidents.’.”
Flying houses
BestLife also found this prediction: “Inventor, science writer, and futurist Arthur C. Clarke – who co-wrote the screenplay for 2001: A Space Odyssey – believed that […] the houses of the future would have nothing keeping them on the ground and they would be able to move to anywhere on earth on a whim. […] ‘Whole communities may migrate south in the winter, or move to new lands whenever they feel the need for a change of scenery’.”
Rocket mail
This is another prediction reported by BestLife: “As out there as it sounds, mail delivery via missile was successfully attempted in 1959. […] Postmaster General Arthur E. Summerfield was so excited by the ‘historic significance’ of mail delivery via instruments of war that he predicted it would become commonplace by the next century [… and said] ‘We stand on the threshold of rocket mail.’.”
Turning iron into gold
The website bob vila posted this story: “Thomas Edison, inventor of the light bulb, also harboured some novel ideas about turning base metals into gold. ‘It will be an easy matter to convert a truckload of iron bars into virgin gold,’ he wrote in 1911.”
Dining room tables that clear themselves
The media site Considerable uncovered this wishful prediction: “Popular Mechanics predicted that dining room tables would become a sort of ‘smart’ table capable of clearing themselves, noting: ‘Dining room tables will quietly swallow dishes after a meal and transfer them to a dishwasher, which will clean the dishes, dispose of garbage, stack and store eating utensils until the next mealtime.’.”